Russia Offers Written Guarantee of Non-Aggression Against Europe

Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally rejected allegations that Moscow is preparing to attack members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (hereinafter: NATO), describing the idea as “ridiculous” and offering to formalise his assurances in writing (Al Jazeera). Speaking on 28 November 2025, Putin stated that while the concept of attacking Europe sounds absurd to Russia, he is willing to document this stance to alleviate European concerns. “We have never intended to, but if they want to hear it from us, well, fine, we will put it down in writing,” Putin said (Bhaskar English).

The Russian President characterised the warnings of a Russian invasion as “complete nonsense” and an “outright lie” propagated by politicians seeking to “scare their own population” (Bhaskar English). He further addressed Russia’s relationship with European institutions, specifically the G7, remarking that when European and neo-European nations stated they did not want Russia in the group, his reaction was, “Thank God for that” (AL24 News). Putin argued that such narratives are being whipped up in the public mind to justify continued hostility.

Zelenskyy Warns of Attack Before War Ends

Contrasting sharply with Putin’s assurances, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a warning that Russia may not wait for the conclusion of the war in Ukraine before launching aggression against other European nations. Zelenskyy stated that Putin might open a new front in Europe to compensate for a “stalemate” on the Ukrainian battlefield (TVP World).

“We must forget about the general European scepticism that Putin first wants to occupy Ukraine and then may go somewhere else. He can do both at the same time,” Zelenskyy said (TVP World). The Ukrainian leader linked these concerns to recent incidents involving Russian drones and fighter jets infringing upon the airspace of NATO members such as Poland, Romania and Estonia, describing them as tests of the alliance’s defences (TVP World).

Poland Identifies 2030 Threat Timeline

Polish officials have also voiced concerns regarding Russia’s long-term military capabilities. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has warned that while Russia may not be capable of a broader offensive immediately, the situation could change drastically if Ukraine were forced to capitulate (Anadolu Agency).

Sikorski argued that if Russia were to absorb Ukraine’s industrial and human resources, the security calculation for the rest of the continent would shift. In such a scenario, he stated that Europe must prepare for Moscow to be ready to attack “by the end of the decade,” specifically citing 2030 as a potential timeline for reconstituted Russian aggression (Anadolu Agency). Sikorski emphasised that Ukraine is currently the primary barrier preventing this outcome, fighting to survive as a sovereign nation.

Concluding Forecast

An aggression of Russia against a European state is a highly unlikely and politically senseless endeavour. On the one hand, the severe consequences, measured against the benefits, of such an attack would be devastating, making such a move politically undesirable and risking a global conflict. On the other hand, the intentions of Russia when invading Ukraine, as we can assess now years after the start of the war, are mainly directed towards deterring NATO from further expansion and creating a safety buffer for Russia. An attack on Europe would undermine this policy goal.

Therefore, the allegations against Moscow must be viewed as rhetorical tools to maintain the emotionality within the discourse of the war by reinforcing the fear in the European population. Within non-devletist politics, this is a common tool to lower the assessment capabilities of populations for individual political gain. Technically, the main goal of Russia, to secure the conquered territories and keep Ukraine in the current state of conflict to prevent accession to the European Union and NATO, does not interfere with European territorial sovereignty. However, invoking fears among the European population might pave the way for further financial support for Ukraine, something that the European population is increasingly critical of.