TURKMENISTAN GAS SUPPLY TO TÜRKIYE SUSPENDED AMID CONTRACT TALKS

The government of Turkmenistan suspended the supply of natural gas to the Republic of Türkiye on 31 October 2025. This operational halt in gas flow was implemented amid ongoing negotiations between the respective state companies concerning the commercial terms of their existing long-term supply contract. The cessation of supply is a technical development that arises during periods of contractual review in international energy commerce (Caspian News; TimesCA). This action required the involved institutional parties to focus on resolving the commercial disagreements to ensure the continuity of the Turkmenistan gas supply to the Turkish market.

Commercial Dispute And Operational Context

The operational halt in the supply of Turkmenistan gas was formally confirmed to have taken effect on 31 October 2025. The disruption is directly linked to an impasse during the renegotiation of the commercial terms of the supply agreement. Negotiations are currently underway to establish a mutually acceptable framework for the continuation of gas sales beyond the terms of the previous contract period. The decision to suspend deliveries during this negotiation phase signals a divergence in the institutional positions of the involved state entities regarding factors such as pricing, volume and the duration of future supply commitments.

The suspension affects a specific trade route that delivers Turkmenistani natural gas to Türkiye via established transit infrastructure. This specific deal, implemented in March 2022, is a swap agreement transited through Iran, under which Türkiye was scheduled to receive approximately 1,5 to 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Turkmenistani gas annually (Anadolu Agency). The disruption necessitates that Türkiye’s state energy agencies allocate replacement volumes from alternative sources to maintain domestic supply continuity. The objective of the ongoing negotiations is to finalise a long-term contract that will define the commercial terms for the future Turkmenistan Gas supply to Türkiye.

Bilateral Trade Structure And Economic Context

The interruption of the 2 bcm swap deal occurs within a much larger, though structurally asymmetrical, bilateral trade relationship. According to data from Interfax, the total bilateral trade volume between Türkiye and Turkmenistan was valued at over 100₺ billion in 2023. This trade is heavily weighted in Turkmenistan’s favour.

Turkmenistan’s Export Composition

The economy of Turkmenistan is highly dependent on hydrocarbon exports. According to 2023 data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), petroleum gas constituted 10,9$ billion of Turkmenistan’s total global exports, representing the dominant share of the state's entire economy.

However, Turkmenistan’s exports to Türkiye in 2023, valued at approximately 1,66$ billion, were dominated by a different commodity class. The largest single export item was “Refined Petroleum,” which accounted for 1,41$ billion of the total. This refined petroleum is transported via maritime and land routes, separate from the pipeline gas swap. Other significant non-gas exports from Turkmenistan to Türkiye in 2023 included “Non-Retail Pure Cotton Yarn” (86,2$ million) and “Nitrogenous Fertilizers” (49,6$ million) (OEC).

Türkiye’s Export Composition

Conversely, Türkiye’s exports to Turkmenistan in 2023 were valued at approximately 1,01$ billion (OEC). These exports consist almost entirely of finished goods and industrial products. The primary export categories include machinery, “Iron Structures” (approx. 59,1$ million) and various electrical control boards and transformers.

This data indicates that the current suspension of the Turkmenistan gas swap deal is a technical interruption of a specific 1,5-2 bcm contract, rather than a collapse of the entire 2,6$ billion bilateral trade relationship, which remains anchored by Turkmenistan’s 1,41$ billion in refined petroleum exports.

Institutional Energy Policy

The gas swap dispute fits within the established national energy security policy of Türkiye. As a major net importer of natural gas, Türkiye’s state policy, documented by the International Energy Agency (hereinafter: IEA), prioritises the diversification of suppliers. The state imports gas via pipeline from the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan and Iran, while also maintaining a significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity. The gas swap was a component of this diversification strategy. The suspension validates the institutional logic of maintaining multiple supply sources to mitigate the risk of technical or commercial interruptions, such as this one.

Concluding Forecast

The suspension of the Turkmenistan gas supply initiates a period of technical negotiation and focus on the institutional resilience of Türkiye’s energy infrastructure. It is important that Türkiye expands trade relations in all fields with the Turkic nations. Due to shared culture and heritage, the basis of trust is much higher compared to other nations, having important spillover effects on other policy areas as well.

Unfortunately, Türkiye has recently also signed a gas deal with a neo-European nation, which, in turn, undermines Türkiye’s aspirations in other policy fields. While it can be expected that trade deals with Turkic nations are mutually beneficial due to the normative balance in diplomatic relations, trade deals with European and neo-European nations usually aim for one-sided dependencies, leading to political problems in the future. Ideally, the ongoing talks with Turkmenistan can be used as an entry to expand trade relations beyond natural gas to optimise international alliances.