TÜRKIYE EXPORT GROWTH DRIVEN BY DEFENSE SURGE AND STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS

Reports show an expansion in Türkiye’s international trade performance, anchored by a surge in the defence sector and strengthened bilateral ties across Sub-Anatolia and Central Asia. The data highlights a 30% rise in defence exports and ambitious new trade targets with key regional partners, sending positive signals for the national economy.

Defence Sector Reaches Record Highs

The Turkish defence industry has recorded a substantial performance increase in 2025. According to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, defence and aviation exports reached 7,445$ billion in the first 11 months of the year, marking a 30% rise compared to the same period in 2024. Speaking at a naval commissioning ceremony, Erdoğan emphasised that Türkiye now ranks as the 11th largest defence exporter globally.

The sector’s growth is further evidenced by major international deliverables. The President noted the delivery of the PNS Khaibar corvette to the Pakistan Navy, part of a four-vessel agreement signed in 2018. He stated that these investments are designed “to protect peace, independence and our future” rather than solely for warfare. The President also revealed that construction has begun on a new 300-metre aircraft carrier, a successor to the TCG Anadolu, asserting that Türkiye is among only 10 nations capable of developing its own warships.

Glass Industry And European Markets

Parallel to defence, the glass manufacturing sector continues to maintain a stable export profile. Data from the Trade Ministry reveals that Italy has been the top destination for Türkiye’s glass and glassware exports over the past five years (2020–2024), purchasing a total of 705,2$ million worth of goods. The sector itself had a size of approximately 6,3$ billion in 2023 and is projected to maintain this valuation through 2028.

While Italy held the long-term top spot, a shift was observed in the first 10 months of 2025. The United States of America emerged as the leading importer during this period with 115,7$ million in purchases, slightly outpacing Italy’s 115$ million. Overall, the industry generated a foreign trade surplus of 166$ million between January and October 2025.

Regional Partnerships And Trade Targets

Türkiye is also actively pursuing higher trade volumes with regional partners in Sub-Anatolia and Central Asia.

• Oman: In a diplomatic engagement, officials from Türkiye and Oman set a target to increase bilateral trade to 5$ billion over the next five years. During the 13th session of the Türkiye–Oman Joint Committee, Omani Minister Qais Mohammed al Yousef proposed the establishment of a dedicated “Turkish-Omani Industrial Zone” in the sultanate to leverage free trade agreements. Bilateral trade already saw a 7,8% rise in the first half of 2025.
• Uzbekistan: Similar ambitions were outlined with Uzbekistan. Following talks between Uzbek Ambassador Ilhom Haydarov and Turkish Deputy Minister of Trade Mustafa Tuzcu, both nations reaffirmed a goal to reach 5$ billion in trade, up from the current volume of 2,4$ billion. The discussions focused on reducing tariff barriers for electrical equipment and textiles.
• Iran: Despite regional instability, trade with Iran has shown resilience. The Iranian Customs Administration reported a 14% increase in exports to Türkiye between April and September 2025, totaling 2,718$ billion. However, Iranian imports from Türkiye declined by 22% to 4,324$ billion during the same period. Türkiye remains Iran’s third-largest export destination, primarily purchasing natural gas, urea fertilizer and aluminium.

Concluding Outlook

The simultaneous growth in high-value defence exports and the establishment of concrete multibillion-dollar trade targets with partners like Oman and Uzbekistan suggest a strategic diversification of Türkiye’s economic statecraft. By moving beyond traditional commodity exports into complex industrial cooperation and defence technology transfers, Ankara is likely positioning itself as a central economic hub bridging European markets with Sub-Anatolia and Central Asia. This trajectory indicates that future economic resilience will increasingly depend on the successful materialisation of these “industrial zones” and joint defence projects rather than simple transactional trade.

However, it is important to keep the scope in mind. While engaging in these efforts is a positive signal, the scope of them is below the necessary means to have a meaningful impact on the Turkish economy, which is still in crisis. Given the high inflation numbers, the export growth must be viewed as an expected side effect since Turkish goods become cheaper on the international market. To have meaningful effects on the economy, export efforts need to outpace the Lira's devaluation by a far greater extent.