ISRAEL ELECTION 2026: NO CLEAR WINNER, TALKS AHEAD

Israel Election 2026 Ends In Deadlock

Israel's parliamentary election on 27 October 2026 has produced no clear winner, with exit polls and early partial results indicating that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc nor the opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is on course to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat parliament (France 24). Voter turnout reached 77,7 per cent, the highest recorded in more than four decades, reflecting the intensity of public engagement with the first wartime election in a generation. The result sets the stage for protracted coalition negotiations that could take weeks or months to conclude, and raises the possibility of a further election if no viable government can be assembled.

Exit Polls And Partial Results

Initial exit polls broadcast by Israeli television networks on election night projected the Eisenkot-led opposition bloc at 52 or 53 seats against Netanyahu's bloc at 50, a margin too narrow to be decisive and within the margin of error of the surveys (New York Times). A subsequent set of projections revised the figures, showing the two blocs level. With more than 80 per cent of votes counted, Deutsche Welle reported the pro-Netanyahu bloc holding a slight lead in the raw vote tally, though final seat allocations remained uncertain (DW). Later broadcaster projections cited by The Japan Times put Netanyahu's bloc on course for 53 seats and Eisenkot's bloc at 48, though those figures were still subject to revision as counting continued. Final results were not expected for several days.

Likud, Netanyahu's party, was projected to remain the single largest party in the parliament, even as the broader bloc it anchors fell short of a governing majority. Eisenkot's centrist party, Yashar, emerged as the principal vehicle of the opposition challenge, with the former chief of staff drawing support from voters seeking a change of leadership after nearly three years of continuous conflict. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot claimed a mandate on election night: Netanyahu asserted the right to form a right-wing government despite the exit poll shortfall, while Eisenkot declared that voters had rejected the incumbent's leadership and vowed to move swiftly to assemble an alternative coalition (Al Jazeera).

Arab Parties Emerge As Kingmakers

One of the most consequential results of the election was the performance of Arab-majority parties, which exit polls projected to win between 17 and 19 seats, a historic high (Arab News). Turnout among Arab Israeli voters surged, driven in part by sustained opposition to Netanyahu's government and its conduct of the war in Gaza. The strong showing transforms Arab-led lists into potential kingmakers: Eisenkot's bloc cannot reach 61 seats without their support, yet any formal coalition arrangement between Jewish and Arab parties would represent a significant departure from established Israeli coalition practice and carries its own political risks.

France 24 reported that rallies calling for a Jewish-Arab government took place in the days following the vote, reflecting a segment of Israeli society willing to consider such an arrangement (France 24). The Korea Times noted that Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party, together with opposition allies, has the clearest arithmetic path to power if it can incorporate Arab-led parties, though analysts cited in the report described the task as difficult (Korea Times). Netanyahu's camp, for its part, spent election day raising concerns about Arab voter turnout, a tactic that drew attention to the demographic stakes of the contest.

The Candidates And Their Blocs

Benjamin Netanyahu And The Right-Wing Coalition

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister with 19 years in office across multiple terms, entered the election as the incumbent facing a referendum on his stewardship. His campaign centred on security commitments, framing the election as a choice between continued resolve against Hamas and Iran, and what he characterised as a less reliable alternative. The right-wing bloc he leads includes ultra-Orthodox religious parties and far-right nationalist factions whose presence in any future Netanyahu government would shape policy on issues ranging from military conscription exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox to settlement expansion. Financial markets reacted to the partial results: Israeli stocks fell, and the shekel weakened as the Netanyahu bloc outperformed some pre-election forecasts, according to Cyprus Mail.

Gadi Eisenkot And The Opposition Alliance

Eisenkot, 66, is a political novice who served as Israel's military chief of staff and whose son was killed during the Gaza campaign, a biographical detail that shaped his public profile throughout the campaign. Described by the Korea Times as hawkish, reserved and unpolished, he built his candidacy on a critique of Netanyahu's leadership failures and a promise of more effective security governance rather than a fundamental departure from Israel's military posture. His opposition bloc encompasses centrist and centre-left parties. Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to step down following the exit polls, arguing that the results reflected a complete loss of public confidence in the prime minister's government (Korea Times).

Domestic Issues Beyond The Wars

While the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and with Iran provided the dominant backdrop, Euronews reported that several domestic issues also divided voters: the longstanding controversy over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, the absence of a formal inquiry into the security failures of 7 October 2023, and economic pressures. The New York Times noted that Israel's economic future featured prominently in the campaign, with Netanyahu offering a forecast that critics characterised as grim. These fault lines cut across the security debate and contributed to the breadth of the anti-Netanyahu vote, which drew from constituencies with divergent views on foreign policy but shared dissatisfaction with the incumbent government's domestic record (New York Times).

What Comes Next: Coalition Talks And Presidential Role

Under Israeli constitutional procedure, President Isaac Herzog must now decide which bloc leader to invite to attempt to form a government, a decision the Jerusalem Post described as an exceptionally difficult one given that Likud is the largest single party while the opposition bloc holds a narrow overall seat advantage in exit projections. The president's choice will initiate a 28-day negotiating window, extendable under law, during which the designated formateur must assemble a coalition commanding at least 61 parliament seats. If that attempt fails, the mandate can pass to another member of the parliament, and if no government is formed within the statutory period, a further election becomes possible.

Our analysis, however, points to a clear result of Netanyahu being elected for another term. The current uncertainties need to be assessed as legitimising rhetoric to show a democratic process and freedom of speech and vote. Over the past decades, Netanyahu has shown multiple times that he wants to tighten his grip on power and be the person who conquers all Palestinian land to claim it for Israel. We analysed his stance three years ago (click here for more), and all policy measures taken since then have underlined his goal of building a legacy around the conquest of Palestine. With therecent increase in aggressive incursions into European and Neo-European states Bank, we can see that Netanyahu is rushing to reach his goal. Just short of doing so, he will not let these elections get in the way. Potentially, these elections will be subject to the use of illegitimate measures, but Netanyahu is highly likely to win them.