SOMALIA TERMINATES STRATEGIC AGREEMENTS WITH UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

The Federal Government of Somalia officially terminated all security, defence and economic agreements with the United Arab Emirates on 12 January 2026, following the illegal entry of a Yemeni separatist leader into the nation. State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Omar Balcad confirmed the decision after reports emerged that Aidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of the Southern Transitional Council (hereinafter: STC), was facilitated by Emirati authorities to transit through Somali territory without federal authorisation.

Security Breach And The “Last Straw”

The diplomatic rupture follows an incident on 8 January 2026, where al-Zubaidi allegedly fled the Yemeni city of Aden to avoid crisis talks in Riyadh. According to Somalia's government intelligence, the separatist leader travelled by boat to the port of Berbera in the breakaway region of Somaliland before being transported on a UAE-registered aircraft to Mogadishu.

Minister Ali Omar Balcad stated that although the government received the aircraft’s passenger manifest, al-Zubaidi’s name was omitted, leading to allegations that he was hidden onboard. The State Minister described the illegal entry and the subsequent use of Somalia's airspace to “smuggle a fugitive” as the “last straw”for bilateral relations (Al-Jazeera). In response, the Council of Ministers issued a prohibition on all military and cargo aircraft owned or leased by the United Arab Emirates from using Somali airspace.

Termination Of Port And Defence Pacts

The Cabinet resolution passed in Mogadishu annuls all existing bilateral pacts, specifically targeting infrastructure and security cooperation. The terminated agreements include:

• Port Operations: Management and development contracts for the strategic ports of Berbera, Bosaso and Kismayo are now considered void by the federal government.
• Security and Defence: All military training programs and defence partnerships between the two nations have been ended immediately.
• Aviation: Non-civilian flights from the United Arab Emirates remain banned, though civilian passenger services are currently exempt.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stated during a press conference on 13 January 2026 that the state had approached the relationship with “good intentions,” but the United Arab Emirates had consistently bypassed federal authorities to engage with regional administrations.

Regional Reactions And Internal Fractures

The federal decision has exposed significant divisions within the nation’s political structure. Within hours of the announcement, the autonomous regions of Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland rejected the authority of the central government to cancel these agreements.

Somaliland Presidency Minister Khadar Hussein Abdi described the United Arab Emirates as a “trusted friend” and stated that the federal decree would not affect operations at the Port of Berbera. Similarly, the Dubai-based logistics entity DP World announced on 13 January 2026 that it remains focused on port operations in Berbera, effectively defying the federal annulment. The government of the United Arab Emirates has not yet issued an official comment on the allegations regarding al-Zubaidi or the cancellation of the agreements.

Concluding Outlook: Power Asymmetry And State Interests

The diplomatic collapse between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi highlights a recurring institutional dynamic where more powerful states leverage the internal fragmentation of less developed nations to secure specific state interests. The facilitation of the illegal entry of a foreign separatist leader demonstrates a strategic willingness by the United Arab Emirates to bypass federal sovereignty in favour of maintaining influence over regional hubs like Somaliland and the Port of Berbera.

In this framework, the United Arab Emirates treats Somalia's federal structure as a nominal entity while engaging in direct, transactional relationships with sub-state actors to protect its logistical and maritime interests in Sub-Anatolia and the Horn of Africa. This approach prioritises the security of trade routes and regional proxy stability over the formal recognition of international borders or central government authority.

The likely development for Somalia involves an increased struggle to assert domestic legitimacy as more powerful external actors continue to utilise the nation’s internal fissures for their own strategic gain. While Mogadishu attempts to use formal diplomatic severance as a tool of resistance, the continued presence of Emirati-backed entities in autonomous regions suggests that powerful states will continue to pursue their interests through direct intervention or regional partnerships, regardless of federal decrees. The result is a persistent erosion of the central state’s ability to govern its own territory in the face of asymmetric power relations.