IRAN PROTESTS: OFFICIAL FIGURES, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND REGIONAL TENSIONS

Iran’s government has released its first detailed official figures on casualties and material damage resulting from nationwide protests that began in late December 2025. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi characterised the unrest as “mayhem of a recent terrorist operation,” framing the protests as violent and fuelled by external forces. Tehran’s authorities reported significant destruction of infrastructure and public and private property across multiple provinces, while offering a specific death toll that differs from estimates by rights groups and international observers.

Official Casualty And Damage Data

Government Figures

On 24 January 2026, Iran’s foreign ministry shared detailed figures on casualties and damage attributed to the protests. According to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a total of 3.117 people were killed, including 2.427 civilians and members of security forces and 690 identified as “terrorists” or violent rioters. These figures include both those killed in confrontations and those categorised under Iran’s legal and religious terminology as martyrs.

The material damage reported by Tehran covered a wide range of public and private assets. Authorities said that hundreds of ambulances and buses were damaged, along with fuel stations, private homes, banks, government buildings, police stations, Basij centres, schools, mosques, libraries and vehicles. The national tally also included damage to ATMs, bus stations and public facilities.

Discrepancies In The Numbers

The official toll contrasts with higher estimates from organisations tracking the unrest. The North American Human Rights Activists News Agency (hereinafter: HRANA) has reported a death toll of at least 5.002, with more than 26.700 arrests and 7.391 severe injuries as of the 26th day of protests. HRANA said the figure reflects verified deaths and does not include additional fatalities still under review. However, due to the lack of independence of this body, the real number of casualties is likely to lie between Iran’s official figures and those of HRANA.

State Response And Narrative On The Unrest

Iranian authorities have consistently described the protests in Iran as episodes of “terrorism” carried out by armed rioters, attempting to link the unrest to foreign influence — particularly from the United States of America and Israel. Tehran has framed its response as necessary to restore public order and has portrayed security forces’ actions as measured and controlled.

In state media appearances, officials have highlighted the scale of destruction, emphasising damage to institutions and infrastructure while asserting that many of those killed were “innocent victims” and martyrs in defence of state stability. Meanwhile, hundreds of agents of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad were arrested.

Regional Tensions And External Security Warnings

Amid the internal crackdown, regional diplomatic tensions have also risen. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that Israel might be looking for an opportunity to attack Iran. Fidan spoke of the risks of external military action further destabilising the region, emphasising that such moves would have far-reaching consequences. Iranian officials, for their part, have repeatedly cautioned that any external attack would be treated as a full-scale conflict, signalling readiness to respond forcefully if they perceive an infringement on sovereignty.

Broader Context Of The Iran Protests

The current wave of the protests in Iran began on 28 December 2025, initially sparked by economic hardship, including the sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial and rising living costs. Demonstrations quickly expanded nationwide, encompassing major cities and many provinces. The unrest has been described by observers as the most extensive challenge to the state’s authority since the 1979 revolution, with participation spanning diverse segments of society and expressing broader political discontent. Independent reporting has been significantly impeded by a nationwide internet blackout imposed by Iranian authorities in early January 2026.

For a holistic view of the situation, it is important to recognise the twofold dynamic in the nation. On the one hand, there is dissatisfaction with the theocratic government, but it is unclear how much of this discontent stems from independent social development and how much of it has been indoctrinated by foreign media and agents. Israel has pursued the indoctrination of the Iranian people with incompatible values since at least 2002. Therefore, periodically emerging protests like the most recent protests come as no surprise.

On the other hand, the many decades of economic sanctions deteriorated the economic situation in Iran. Little development and perspective create frustration and demand for change. With youth unemployment constantly above 20%, Iran experiences significant brain drain, along with periodically flaring-up protests.

Finally, Iran is viewed as a strategic target for some nations that consider Iran an enemy. Israel, in particular, pursues the destruction and subsequent control of Iran for religious reasons, utilising its vassal state, the United States of America, as a tool. In a comprehensive strategic assessment paper, we examine Israel’s plan in strategic depth. For more information on the particular developments and backgrounds in the relationship between Iran and Israel, including our forecasts for the next years,click here.