GERMAN STATE ELECTIONS: AFD SURGES, CDU SUFFERS HISTORIC LOW

Germany's final state elections of 2026, held on 21 September in Berlin and the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, produced results that Chancellor Friedrich Merz described as a 'disaster' for his party. Exit polls by public broadcaster ARD indicated that the Alternative für Deutschland (hereinafter: AfD) took first place in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with approximately 37% of the vote, while Die Linke, the far-left party, led in Berlin. The Christian Democratic Union (hereinafter: CDU), Merz's centre-right party, recorded roughly 5% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the lowest result the party has achieved in any German state since the Second World War (BBC).

Results Across Both German State Elections

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD Takes First Place

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, exit polls showed the AfD with a narrow lead of approximately 37%, roughly doubling its share compared with the previous election cycle (France 24). The CDU's projected result of around 5% placed it at risk of falling below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation in the state legislature, which would mark the first time in the postwar era that the party failed to win seats in any German state parliament. Partial results reported by the Financial Times confirmed that the CDU was on course to miss that threshold, a development that would carry significant symbolic weight for a party that has governed at the federal level for much of Germany's postwar history (Financial Times).

Berlin: Die Linke Claims Victory As CDU Trails

In Berlin, exit polls indicated that Die Linke had secured first place, with the AfD also recording gains in the capital compared with previous contests (Euronews). The CDU trailed far behind both parties in Berlin, compounding the scale of the evening's losses for Merz's coalition. The simultaneous advance of the AfD on the right and Die Linke on the left in two geographically and demographically distinct states illustrated the breadth of the electoral pressure facing the federal government. Voter dissatisfaction with economic reforms and rising living costs was cited across multiple reports as a contributing factor to the CDU's losses in both states.

Merz Responds: 'Backbone, Steadfastness And Patience'

Chancellor Merz convened a crisis meeting of the CDU in Berlin on the evening of 21 September 2026, where he addressed party members following the publication of exit polls. He acknowledged the scale of the losses directly, describing the results as a 'disaster', while signalling that he would not resign from either his party chairmanship or the chancellorship. Speaking at the meeting, Merz said: 'What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience. I will demonstrate this as CDU party chairman and, above all, as chancellor of our country' (South China Morning Post).

Merz attributed a portion of the CDU's collapse in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to what he described as polarisation between the Social Democratic Party and the AfD, which he said had squeezed the centre-right vote in the northeastern state. He nonetheless committed to continuing the federal government's programme of economic reforms, which he characterised as necessary despite their potential to impose further costs on households. The chancellor's vow to press ahead came against a backdrop of voter anger over economic conditions that multiple ingest sources identified as a driver of the CDU's losses (PBS NewsHour).

AfD's Postwar Record And The Broader Political Landscape

The AfD's result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania represents the strongest performance by any party classified as far-right in a German state election since the end of the Second World War, according to reporting across multiple outlets covering the 21 September vote. The party's simultaneous gains in Berlin, a city with a very different demographic and political profile from the northeastern state, indicate that its electoral reach is not confined to eastern Germany, though its strongest results continue to come from states in the former German Democratic Republic. The CDU's near-elimination from the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania legislature, if confirmed in the final count, would leave Merz's party without representation in a state parliament for the first time in the postwar period (Financial Times).

Die Linke's victory in Berlin adds a further dimension to the evening's results. The party, which draws support from voters on the left critical of mainstream social democratic and green politics, secured first place in a major urban centre where the CDU had previously maintained a more competitive position. The simultaneous success of Die Linke in Berlin and the AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania reflects a fragmentation of the German electorate away from the established centre-right and centre-left blocs that have dominated federal and state politics for decades (Euronews).

Federal Implications And Next Steps

The 21 September 2026 results are the final state elections of 2026, meaning no further regional contests are scheduled in the near term that could provide the CDU with an opportunity to recover momentum at the state level before the next federal electoral cycle. Merz's coalition faces the immediate challenge of managing the political fallout while advancing a reform agenda that sources describe as potentially painful for voters, the same electorate that delivered the losses on Sunday. The question of whether the CDU can maintain its parliamentary presence in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will be settled by the final vote count, with the 5% threshold representing a concrete institutional test of the party's viability in eastern Germany (PBS NewsHour).

At the federal level, the results intensify scrutiny of Merz's leadership of both the CDU and the government, though he has explicitly ruled out resignation. The AfD's continued electoral advances across multiple states in 2026 raise procedural questions about coalition formation at the state level, given that all major parties represented in the Bundestag have maintained positions against governing in coalition with the AfD.

In broader political terms, the election results show a concerning development in Germany. While Germany crafted a political culture of modesty and stable governance, the results display a rapid radicalisation of the political landscape. Centre parties are losing ground, while extremist parties are rising quickly. This dynamic is the result of deep division and polarisation of the society, which we already analysed more than 1,5 years ago. Among the factors that drive this divide is societal adaptation to the Anglo-American culture through media globalisation and potential foreign intervention in the political and media spheres. Beyond most superficial analyses, we assess the tangible political issues, such as immigration and industrial decline, as symptoms rather than causes. In the past, Germany faced similar policy challenges, but due to a more distinct indigenous policy culture and societal course, the responses to those challenges were more technical than emotional. As radical parties gain ground in Germany, the stability of further European integration might also be negatively affected.