GEORGIAN ELECTION: RULING PARTY WINS AMID PROTESTS

Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, has secured a victory in the nation's local elections held on Saturday, 4 October 2025. The announcement was met with fierce opposition protests in the capital, Tbilisi, where demonstrators clashed with law enforcement. The government has since accused the opposition of attempting to stage a revolution, with the Prime Minister vowing legal reprisals against instigators, significantly escalating political tensions following the recent arrest of former President Mikheil Saakashvili.

The 2025 Local Election Results

According to the final vote count, the Georgian Dream party obtained 47,6% of the national vote. The main opposition bloc, the United National Movement (hereinafter: UNM), founded by Saakashvili, received 27,1%. These local elections were widely regarded as a significant test of public support for the incumbent government. The opposition, however, has refused to concede defeat, alleging the vote was unfair and calling for its supporters to take to the streets.

Protests, Detentions And State Response

Following the release of the election results, tens of thousands of opposition supporters gathered in Tbilisi to contest the outcome. During the demonstrations on Saturday night, events escalated as some protesters attempted to storm the presidential palace, according to a report by Euronews. This led to a direct confrontation with law enforcement. Police units deployed water cannons to disperse the crowds, and reports confirmed that several dozen people were detained. By Sunday, police presence was maintained in the city centre.

Government Accuses Opposition Of "Revolution" Attempt

The government’s response to the protests has been uncompromising. In a statement reported by Daily Sabah, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili accused the UNM of attempting to "organise a revolution" and overthrow the government. He characterised the opposition as an "anti-state and anti-national force." The Prime Minister vowed that "all instigators of violence will be punished to the full extent of the law," signalling a hardline stance against the ongoing demonstrations and their organisers. This rhetoric marks a significant hardening of the government's position and reduces the immediate prospects for political dialogue.

Political Context: The Arrest Of Saakashvili

The election and its aftermath are intrinsically linked to the return and arrest of Mikheil Saakashvili. After eight years in exile, the former president was detained on the eve of the election on standing abuse of office charges. His arrest has served as a powerful catalyst for the opposition. Saakashvili is currently on a hunger strike, and according to his lawyer in a statement reported by Euronews, his health is "deteriorating." This development adds a volatile element to the standoff, as his physical condition could become a further flashpoint for civil unrest.

Concluding Forecast

The contested result of the Georgian election, coupled with the government's severe response, has propelled the nation into a more acute phase of political crisis. The Prime Minister's accusation of a revolutionary attempt and his vow of reprisals effectively close the door on immediate de-escalation through dialogue. This creates a highly confrontational environment where the government's legitimacy is challenged on the streets, and the state is responding with legal and physical force. Especially, since Georgian politics is also heavily influenced by two major interest blocs, the European Union and Russia, the divisions are further deepened also at a structural political level.

This naturally translates into hardened stances domestically, which is why the protests might intensify in the mid-run. However, for the Georgian government to ease the domestic tensions, which is essential for sustainable policymaking, it would need to formulate a more independent foreign policy. Much of the political topics that caused major rifts were developments like the European Union's resolution viewing Georgia's government as illegitimate following the 2024 parliamentary elections or cooperation policies of the Georgian Dream party with Russia. Therefore, unity in a more independent foreign policy could be a first constructive step looking forward.