STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE ON THE YEMEN CONFLICT

The ongoing war in Yemen has evolved over the past decade from a civil conflict into a precarious clash of interests between regional and international powers. This stems not only from its strategically important location at the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, which represents the fastest maritime shipping route between Asia and Europe, but also from Yemen's central role within the regional balance of power. The conflict intertwines the interests of Saudi Arabia, Iran and other regional actors and is closely linked to Saudi-Iranian rivalry through Iranian support for the Houthis. Simultaneously, the increasing involvement of the Houthis in the conflict between Israel and Iran has expanded Yemen's significance beyond its immediate neighbourhood. Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea demonstrate how the conflict has transformed from an internal power struggle into a regional security challenge with global economic consequences.

Because this conflict connects many intersections of regional rivalries and their associated hegemonies, this situation offers the opportunity to illuminate and analyse two fundamental dynamics of current geopolitics. On the one hand, the growing importance of South-South cooperation with China becomes evident, particularly with major allies of the United States of America (hereinafter: USA), namely Saudi Arabia. China's means of exerting influence encompass a different portfolio than that of the USA, one that permits considerably greater flexibility for strategic alignment and potential cooperation. In the context of the Yemen conflict, we can see why China not only reduces the geopolitical power disparity between itself and the USA, but also how it has been able to build dominance in South-South cooperation. On the flip side, this reveals that the USA cannot maintain its dominant position in the region without difficulty at an achieved level, a dynamic which we shall analyse below through the structural constraints of monopoly power.

The War In Yemen

The foundation upon which the current regional proxy conflict developed lies in the political and cultural fragmentation of the nation. Yemen was a divided country until 1990: North Yemen, which traditionally maintained close ties to Saudi Arabia, grounded in their shared border, and South Yemen, which was governed along Marxist-Leninist lines until 1990. Whilst North Yemen was politically and economically more closely tied to the Arab monarchies of the Gulf region, South Yemen developed during the Cold War into a close ally of the Soviet Union. The unification of both states in 1990 did not, however, eliminate these historical divisions. As early as 1994, the conflict between the political elites of the north and south escalated once again into civil war, which the northern forces under President Ali Abdullah Saleh were able to win. The political order remained marked by regional and societal tensions in the years that followed. The Huthi movement gained particular significance in the north. The Houthis, officially Ansar Allah, emerged from a Zaydi religious and political movement and increasingly turned against Saleh's central government. Between 2004 and 2010, several armed conflicts occurred between the Houthis and the government. The Arab uprisings of 2011 intensified political instability. Following Saleh's resignation, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi assumed the presidency and a United Nations-backed transition process was intended to create a new political order. The National Dialogue Conference, convened in 2013, was meant to address in particular how the various regions and political groups could be represented in a future state. The negotiations, however, failed to find a lasting solution to the central conflicts. The Houthis in particular rejected the planned federal reorganisation and increasingly gained military strength.

The situation escalated in 2014. With support from sections of the military and former allies of Saleh, the Houthis were able to seize large parts of the north and bring the capital Sana'a under their control in September 2014. In early 2015, the Hadi government largely collapsed. Hadi first fled to the south and subsequently to Saudi Arabia. What had begun as an internal Yemeni power struggle increasingly developed into a regional conflict. In March 2015, Saudi Arabia intervened militarily at the head of a coalition of several Arab states on the side of the internationally recognised government. Riyadh viewed the rise of the Houthis as an immediate threat to its national security and as an opportunity for Iran to expand its influence directly along Saudi Arabia's southern border. Iran supported the Houthis politically and militarily, causing the Yemeni conflict to become increasingly embedded in Saudi-Iranian rivalry. At the same time, the anti-Houthi camp itself was fragmented. The United Arab Emirates supported, among others, the Southern Transitional Council, which seeks extensive autonomy or the restoration of an independent South Yemen. Thus, in Yemen, not only the Houthis and the government faced each other; within the anti-Houthi camp, too, there existed differing visions for the country's future political order.

Since the end of 2023, the conflict has acquired an additional regional dimension. In connection with the Israeli military campaign in the Palestinian territories, the Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, declaring this as support for Palestinians in Gaza. This directly linked Yemen to the broader conflict between Iran, Israel and their respective partners. The country's strategic location at Bab al-Mandab made the attacks simultaneously an international security matter, as the strait represents a central connection between the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Despite international efforts, this conflict is intensifying, increasingly without long-term prospects for conflict resolution.

China's Influence In Yemen

The profound interconnections of conflicts in Sub-Anatolia underscore the precarious situation. An initially internal Yemeni conflict is expanding to the regional level, thereby sustainably influencing the political strategy of regional powers. Yemen thus becomes a playing field in which Saudi Arabia and Iran, in particular, seek to advance their interests; success in achieving their goals in Yemen facilitates further gains in the broader regional conflict constellation. Conversely, defeats in Yemen carry more than symbolic significance, as the massive resource commitment means that actors throughout the region lose capacity for exerting influence. For Saudi Arabia in particular, which has participated in the conflict for over a decade, these losses are severe. Iran, which participates only through support for the Houthis, can thereby weaken its geopolitical rival with relatively moderate resource expenditure.

In response to this escalation, the kingdom is attempting to engage its international partners. The United States of America (hereinafter: USA), with which Saudi Arabia has maintained close security and military relations for decades, represents an obvious point of contact. However, as direct military support from the USA was initially not forthcoming, Riyadh increasingly turned to China. This development is not isolated, but rather builds on China's growing diplomatic role in the region over several years. In 2021 and 2022, Saudi Arabia and Iran had already held talks on improving their relations, with support from Iraq and Oman, among others. In March 2023, China finally assumed a central mediation role. From 6 to 10 March 2023, talks took place in Beijing between senior Saudi and Iranian security representatives, resulting in an agreement to resume diplomatic relations and reopen their respective embassies. Furthermore, both states agreed to implement an existing security cooperation agreement as well as earlier agreements in the areas of economics, trade, investment and technology. China thus positioned itself not as a military guarantor of Saudi Arabia's security, but as an actor that, owing to its relations with both sides, possesses diplomatic access. This role of Beijing was evident again during the recent escalation. After Saudi Arabia sought support from China in the face of the Houthis' offensive, Beijing called on Iran, according to Reuters, to use its influence over the Houthis to prevent further expansion of the conflict. In doing so, Saudi Arabia is drawing on a form of Chinese influence that differs markedly from the traditional security guarantee of the USA, for whilst Washington exercises influence primarily through military capabilities and security cooperation, Beijing's role is based more strongly on diplomatic relations, economic interdependence and access to multiple conflict parties.

South-South Cooperation

In this context, it is worthwhile to examine the concept of South-South cooperation, which investigates and explains these dynamics. South-South cooperation represents a fundamental shift in the traditional structures of international collaboration. For decades, financial resources, expertise and policy recommendations flowed predominantly from the Global North towards the Global South. This created not only economic dependence but also a power imbalance regarding which development models and political approaches were considered successful and transferable. With the economic and political rise of states such as China, India and Brazil, this classical division of roles has increasingly changed. States that previously acted primarily as recipients of international support are now becoming providers of financial resources, infrastructure, technological expertise and political concepts.

China occupies a distinctive position within this development. Its approach differs from classical European and Neo-European development models, particularly through its concentration on economic productivity, infrastructure, digitalisation and state capacity, whilst largely avoiding direct intervention in the political systems of partner states. Chinese cooperation is thus understood not solely as financial support, but increasingly as a comprehensive transfer of economic and technocratic knowledge. The resulting relationships extend beyond classical development aid and combine economic cooperation with long-term political and diplomatic relations. The significance of this development lies therefore not only in the volume of resources transferred, but also in China's growing ability to shape international institutions, cooperation structures and political discourse. Economic dependencies create indirect avenues of influence, whilst participation in multilateral institutions opens access to decision-making processes and international agendas. Simultaneously, China occupies a distinctive position in that it understands itself both as a global great power and as part of the Global South. This allows Beijing to present its growing international role as an alternative to traditional North-South relations, without entirely abandoning existing multilateral structures.

This development becomes particularly significant when South-South cooperation extends beyond economic and development policy questions to encompass diplomatic and security policy areas. China's mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023 illustrates this trend. In doing so, China did not rely on military security guarantees but rather leveraged its relationships with both states to enable a rapprochement between the two central rivals in the region. Saudi Arabia's renewed engagement with Beijing during the escalation in Yemen in 2026 similarly demonstrates that these relationships can acquire a broader political function. China was able to use its access to Iran to exert influence on Tehran and deploy its influence over the Houthis to limit escalation. In this way, China does not replace the USA as the region's traditional hegemon; rather, different forms of international influence are emerging in parallel. While the USA exercises its influence particularly through military capabilities, security cooperation and alliance structures, the Chinese approach is based more strongly on economic interdependence, diplomatic access and long-term partnerships. For states of the Global South, this opens up additional scope for action and allows them to diversify their international relations more substantially. South-South cooperation thus increasingly becomes an instrument through which not only resources and knowledge, but also diplomatic influence and political scope for action are redistributed. The case of Yemen illustrates how these altered cooperation structures can have immediate effects on the regional conflict order.

Restrictions On Monopoly Structures

The diversification of regional power structures in Sub-Anatolia illustrates global shifts in power among international actors. Since the capacity to enforce one's own political interests must always be viewed as relative, an increase in South-South cooperation simultaneously represents a decrease in European and Neo-European power structures. In particular, the USA, which was able to establish a geopolitical monopoly position after the Second World War, is losing its dominant position, as seen above. This is not, however, merely a coincidental phenomenon but one that is structurally determined. Such a monopoly position contains the fundamental dilemma that power never exists in isolation but necessarily presupposes a network of mutual dependencies. A hegemon requires partners to project its power globally, secure strategic infrastructure and deploy its resources. This dependency is, however, by no means one-sided, for it remains stable only so long as the monopolist can offer its partners added value through continuous accumulation of power, security or economic advantages. Once the system reaches a saturation point at which further expansion is no longer possible, this dynamic reverses. The monopolist enters a defensive role. Its resources no longer flow into expanding its own dominance but must instead be expended laboriously to manage the threatened status quo. Through this entrenchment, the overall system loses flexibility. As soon as the relative benefit to partners declines, centrifugal forces emerge. The loyalty of allies erodes, as dependence on the hegemon is increasingly perceived as a burden.

It is precisely this structural inflexibility and overextension that can be observed in the current actions of the USA. Since the USA's own resources are finite despite all capacities, it must deploy them primarily to secure its waning influence across multiple theatres simultaneously. Parallel conflict zones emerge that have the potential to weaken the relative power position of the North American nation sustainably. In particular, the current war against Iran, but also the smouldering crises over Venezuela and Taiwan, tie up immense strategic and military resources. For Washington, this creates a grave dilemma, since it wishes to bind its own allies closely to itself, yet is no longer able to participate actively in every new regional development. Against this backdrop, Iran's involvement in Yemen proves strategically highly effective. By opening this new flank, a gap emerges that the USA can no longer cover for its regional ally, Saudi Arabia. As a direct response to this rigidity and the waning security guarantee, other global actors, such as China in this case, become more attractive for cooperation. Developments such as the formation of the Mecca Alliance illustrate this trend and underscore the growing relevance of partnerships on equal terms rather than bilateral dependencies.

Placing This In Broader Context

The developments outlined in the Yemen conflict ultimately point to two central observations that extend beyond the immediate case. First, China's approach reveals a fundamentally different understanding of exercising influence than the traditional order shaped by the USA. Whereas European and Neo-European hegemony has historically rested on security guarantees, military presence and thus a degree of control over the scope for action available to partner states, China explicitly renounces the role of security guarantor. Beijing seeks neither territorial dominance nor control over its partners' resources, but instead relies on economic and diplomatic interdependence. The decisive difference lies in the character of the resulting relationship. Dependence presupposes a hierarchical gradient in which the weaker party relies on the support of the stronger; interdependence, by contrast, creates mutual bonds that leave both sides room for manoeuvre. China thereby secures influence, but not to an extent that amounts to complete co-option of its partner, and thus preserves its own flexibility to withdraw from individual conflicts without major losses. Whether this represents a genuinely different practice of international relations or merely a strategically astute performance that appears more effective to China at an early stage of its global rise than military engagement cannot be conclusively answered at this point. As Chinese power becomes increasingly consolidated, it may become apparent whether the principle of partnership on equal terms endures or whether it transforms, similar to earlier hegemonic projects, into a new form of dependence as structural superiority grows.

This brings with it a second, equally significant aspect. Precisely because South-South cooperation does not rest on unilateral dependence, it opens up new scope for the states of the Global South to pursue autonomous development, a scope that in classical North-South relations was structurally limited by close ties to the respective hegemon. This greater independence, in turn, facilitates the emergence of additional regional actors who position themselves as autonomous mediators and alliance partners. The example of Sub-Anatolia already illustrates this: alongside China, further states such as Türkiye increasingly appear as mediators and alliance partners, pursuing their own interests and helping to shape existing conflict constellations. The diversification of relevant actors thus changes not only the dynamics of individual conflicts such as the Yemen war, but points to a deeper transformation of the international order. A development away from a unipolar world order towards a more multipolar constellation, in which influence is increasingly exercised through networks of mutual entanglement rather than through hierarchical relations of dependence.